Despite the holiday season, Ukrainian and Russian forces continue intense combat operations across multiple fronts, with no pause in fighting. Recent withdrawals, attacks, and strategic shifts highlight the relentless nature of the war.
As the world celebrates Christmas, soldiers on both sides of the front line in Ukraine are enduring yet another day of combat, underscoring the absence of a truce during the holidays. The conflict, now entering its fourth year, shows no signs of easing, with Ukrainian forces withdrawing from Sievierisk and Russian units launching fresh offensives in Sumy and Pokrovsk. The lack of a Christmas break reflects a broader pattern: the war has become a permanent condition of life, with military operations continuing unabated regardless of cultural or seasonal observances.
Since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, the Eastern front has remained a focal point of attritional warfare. Both sides have adopted strategies emphasizing endurance, resilience, and operational continuity. In Ukraine, the shift to decentralized command structures and voluntary mobilization has enabled sustained resistance, particularly through groups like InformNapalm, which supports reconnaissance and sabotage operations. These networks operate independently but coordinate with official military units, contributing to the overall warfighting capacity.
Historically, winter seasons have seen intensified military activity in Eastern Europe due to terrain conditions favoring entrenched positions and limited mobility. However, the current phase differs significantly from past conflicts: the war is not confined to traditional battlefields. Urban centers, supply routes, and rear logistics hubs are equally targeted. The Russian Armed Forces have faced a reversal in manpower replenishment for the first time in the war, signaling growing strain on recruitment and retention mechanisms. Simultaneously, Ukraine continues to rely heavily on foreign support, especially in air defense and precision munitions, though domestic production and adaptation remain central to sustainability.
The psychological dimension cannot be overlooked. For Ukrainian soldiers, maintaining morale during holidays is tied to national identity and purpose. Public statements from figures like Sergeant Mykhailo Makaruk emphasize duty over comfort, reinforcing a culture of sacrifice. Conversely, Russian forces appear increasingly reliant on conscripted personnel, with reports indicating over 200 Indian nationals recruited into the Russian military—a move reflecting desperation in human capital acquisition.
The fact that neither side observes a Christmas lull suggests a fundamental shift in modern warfare doctrine. Unlike previous conflicts where pauses occurred during religious holidays, today’s war operates under a logic of perpetual readiness. This is driven by:
Geographic momentum: Control of territory in Donbas and Kharkiv oblasts remains fluid, with incremental gains and losses shaping long-term outcomes.
Logistical pressure: Disruptions to supply chains are a primary objective. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated success in targeting Russian convoys, as seen in the destruction of a column near Nove Shakhove on December 17, 2025, using a combination of drones, artillery, and ambush tactics.
Psychological warfare: By refusing to halt operations, both sides signal resolve. For Ukraine, this reinforces sovereignty; for Russia, it maintains pressure on defensive lines.
The formal announcement by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that forces had withdrawn from Sievierisk marks a strategic recalibration rather than a defeat. The decision followed a year-long defense effort, during which Ukrainian units operated under strict Operational Security (OPSEC) protocols. Footage and photos taken during rotations were withheld for over a year to avoid exposing troop movements, positions, and equipment to adversarial analysis. The timing of the release—coinciding with the withdrawal—indicates careful planning to minimize post-withdrawal exploitation.
In Sumy Oblast, Russian forces executed a successful border breach near Mironovsk, marking a renewed push in the north. This incursion threatens key supply corridors linking Kyiv to northeastern regions. Ukrainian defenders are stabilizing positions around Kupiansk, leveraging terrain and pre-positioned defenses to slow the advance. The offensive appears to be part of a larger effort to test Ukrainian flexibility and stretch available reserves.
On the Novopavlivsk axis, operators from the 42nd OMBR Perun repelled a direct assault, destroyed a Russian tank, and eliminated two crew members attempting to flee. The engagement illustrates the increasing reliance on small-unit tactics, real-time intelligence, and drone-assisted targeting. The use of FPV (First-Person View) drones to intercept advancing infantry before reaching fortified lines has become standard practice.
| Metric | Ukrainian Forces | Russian Forces |
|---|---|---|
| Personnel Replenishment | Stable, aided by voluntary enlistment | Declining; net loss recorded Dec 24, 2025 |
| Supply Chain Resilience | High; disrupted by targeted strikes | Vulnerable; dependent on long-range logistics |
| Civilian Impact | Significant; repeated strikes in western Ukraine | Limited; focus on eastern sectors |
| Morale Indicators | High; public appeals for mobilization effective | Low; evidence of desertion and foreign recruitment |
These disparities suggest a widening gap in operational sustainability. While Ukraine leverages adaptive leadership and civil-military integration, Russia faces systemic challenges in sustaining combat effectiveness.
Security experts assess that the continuation of combat during holidays signals a normalization of war. This is not merely a matter of discipline—it reflects deeper institutional changes. Ukrainian military doctrine now prioritizes continuous operational tempo, ensuring that enemy forces never gain a window of opportunity. Similarly, Russian strategy relies on overwhelming volume and persistence, even at the cost of high attrition.
For corporate risk managers and government analysts, this reality implies that contingency planning must account for persistent instability. Infrastructure projects, supply chain routing, and humanitarian coordination require dynamic models that assume no periods of calm. Organizations operating in or near conflict zones should implement real-time threat monitoring and rapid escalation protocols.
From a cybersecurity perspective, the use of drones and digital recon platforms increases the attack surface. Adversaries may attempt to spoof GPS signals or hijack drone feeds. Therefore, cyber-physical integrity controls must be integrated into all unmanned systems.
What to monitor in the coming weeks:
Further Russian advances in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, particularly if reinforcements arrive from other fronts.
Potential Ukrainian counteroffensive preparations in late January 2026, expected to target weak points in Russian logistics.
Escalation in electronic warfare, including jamming of satellite communications and interference with drone navigation.
Increased use of foreign nationals in Russian units, raising legal and ethical questions for international partners.
Early warning indicators include:
The absence of a Christmas break for soldiers on the front lines is not an anomaly—it is the new normal. The war in Ukraine has evolved into a grinding contest of endurance, adaptability, and willpower. For security professionals, this means abandoning assumptions of periodic lulls and adopting a mindset of constant vigilance. ThreatWhere will continue to track developments across all fronts, providing timely updates on shifting dynamics, emerging threats, and evolving tactics. Organizations must treat every day as a potential crisis point, preparing accordingly.